Wednesday, September 2, 2026

XRP Price Forecast: $750M Paper Loss, Time to Buy the Dip?

Author: CoinSense

Ahmed Barakat is a journalist and copywriter based in Georgia with an increasing focus on blockchain technology, DeFi, AI, privacy, digital assets, and fintech innovation.

The Coinsense editorial team is made up of veteran writers specializing in cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. Their expertise ensures comprehensive, accurate, and insightful content for…

XRP is sitting exactly where the market’s patience is being tested the most with an undecided price forecast. Five major US spot XRP ETFs are collectively underwater by $746.1 million on a cost basis of approximately $1.7 billion, yet investors continued buying anyway.

SEC filings show Bitwise, Canary Capital, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, and Grayscale recorded around $629.9 million in primary-market share creations against $309.1 million in redemptions through H1, leaving net capital flow positive by $320.8 million even as fair value dropped 44.1% below cost.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart described the demand as “surprisingly resilient” in an Aug. 31 post, placing cumulative net inflows across the asset class at $1.8 billion.

That’s an unusual signal for a market typically averse to sitting on losses this large. Set against a scheduled 1 billion XRP escrow unlock and a broader risk-off tilt across altcoins, the paper-loss data forces a real question for anyone still on the sidelines: Does institutional conviction here mean something, or is it just sunk-cost stubbornness dressed up as strategy?

Price action has cooled from the late-August peak near $1.70, and XRP now sits in the mid-$1.30s after shedding roughly 8% on the week. The $1.34–$1.35 zone is the critical level, and a break below opens the door toward $1.25–$1.27, near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Supertrend support sits at $1.341, and short-term momentum remains soft. A reclaim of the $1.41 pivot flips the structure back bullish, with $1.47 and eventually $2 psychological targets back in play.

A choppy consolidation between $1.34 and $1.41 could also occur while the market digests the September 1 escrow release of 1 billion XRP. This is notably happening with a price near $1.43 this cycle versus roughly $1 during the prior unlock, a materially stronger setup.

Worst case is a clean break under $1.34 invalidates the August rally structure and drags price toward the mid-$1.20s. Watching the support test here matters more than chasing green candles.

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Maxi Doge Targets Early Mover Upside as XRP Tests Key Levels

Holding through a $746.1 million paper loss takes conviction, or a fairly narrow definition of pain tolerance. Either way, XRP at this size isn’t handing out 50x moves anytime soon; the market cap is simply too large for that kind of asymmetric return. That’s the gap early-stage capital tends to chase instead.

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