CLARITY Act betting odds on Kalshi have plummeted to 25% for the legislation becoming law in 2026, down from 82% recorded in February. Meanwhile, a separate Kalshi prediction market suggests a 94% chance of a U.S. Senate vote occurring before October 1st.
This divergence reflects two distinct considerations: whether the Senate will take up the measure and whether the bill will complete the full legislative process to become law, with a robust crypto bull market potentially hinging on its passage.
The Senate is scheduled to review the legislation on September 15th. Kalshi’s question centers on whether H.R. 3633, previously known as the CLARITY Act, will be approved by both congressional chambers and signed into law by December 31st, 2026. A vote on the motion to proceed represents an earlier procedural step rather than final enactment.
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CLARITY Act Odds: Vote ≠ Law
Over $8 million has been wagered on Kalshi’s contract covering the bill’s enactment. The market’s implied probability dropped from 82% in February to 16% on September 7th.
Opinions on the Senate threshold vary. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong expressed optimism about securing 60 votes during a CNBC interview, characterizing negotiations as delivering most of what both sides desired.
Other estimates cited in the source report were more cautious. Ian Katz of Capital Alpha Partners reduced his assessment of the bill’s passage chances from approximately 40% to 25%.
Galaxy Digital’s August estimate stood at 10%. These evaluations, like prediction market prices, address the prospects for legislation that must progress beyond a procedural Senate vote.
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Why 53 Republican Seats Fall Short
In other CLARITY Act odds news, September 15th is expected to focus on a motion to proceed, which authorizes debate on the bill rather than immediate passage. Supporters require 60 favorable votes. With Republicans holding 53 Senate seats, at least seven Democrats would need to join them to overcome cloture.
The CLARITY Act passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote. The legislation aims to establish a federal framework for the U.S. cryptocurrency market.
Under the proposal outlined in the source report, the CFTC would gain exclusive authority over spot markets for digital commodities, while the SEC would maintain oversight of certain securities offerings and crypto exchange activities.
Three areas of disagreement persist. Several Democrats, including Kirsten Gillibrand, are advocating for a binding ban on public officials holding crypto assets. Traditional banks have resisted compromise on stablecoin rewards.
Lawmakers also remain divided on protections for decentralized finance protocols and non-custodial software developers, with concerns that certain language could create regulatory loopholes.
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Post-September 15th Developments
If the motion to proceed receives the necessary votes, the legislation would advance to formal debate. The unresolved disagreements on ethics, stablecoin rewards, and protections for DeFi and non-custodial developers would still need resolution. If cloture fails, the bill would not progress through that procedural stage.
The legislative path isn’t the only route for crypto policy. The SEC and CFTC are already working on crypto regulation without waiting for Congress.
Under Paul Atkins, the SEC has abandoned certain enforcement actions and developed a taxonomy of crypto assets, according to the source report. The CFTC is addressing issues involving leveraged exchanges and DeFi.
Regulatory action can provide a framework outside legislation, but agency rules can also be modified by future administrations. The September 15th proceeding therefore remains significant as an indicator of whether the CLARITY Act can begin Senate debate, while prediction markets highlight the separate question of whether it can become law in 2026.