Bitcoin’s price has managed to stay above the realized price this bear market cycle, breaking a historic pattern where previous cycles saw daily closes below this level. Unlike the 2018-2019 and 2022-2023 bear markets, where Bitcoin traded below its realized price for months, this cycle has never recorded a daily close beneath that threshold, with June’s low remaining above it.
According to Glassnode, if the price maintains its position above the True Market Mean, June’s low would be the shallowest among the three bear market lows observed in their comparison.
At the June low, the Percent Supply in Profit dropped to a level similar to that seen during the November 2022 low, indicating a significant portion of coins were underwater. However, the difference lay in the scale of losses: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which measures paper gains and losses across all coins, never turned negative, unlike in 2018 and 2022.
A NUPL above zero doesn’t guarantee that every coin or long-term holder is profitable, just as Bitcoin’s price above the Realized Price doesn’t ensure universal gains.
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What Does Holder Profitability Evidence Reveal?
Glassnode identifies the largest long-term holder supply cluster at $84,000–$85,000. This concentration represents a significant area of holder supply, but a supply cluster doesn’t prove that those coins are profitable or that their owners will sell.
Above this, the report places the mean MVRV price at $96,700. This metric is the Realized Price multiplied by Bitcoin’s long-term average MVRV, and Glassnode describes it as the level where the average holder’s profit returns to its long-term norm. Buyers from one to two years earlier, who entered near the top of the range, also approach break-even around this price.
On the downside, the True Market Mean at $77,000 serves as the report’s primary support reference. These levels help frame the recovery, and institutional demand is another component of this picture; Bitcoin’s institutional demand outlook provides related context for assessing the role of inflows.
Data indicates that long-term holder MVRV remained above 1 during the current cycle. There’s still evidence that selling pressure has been constrained. Weekly realized profit during the current run is a fraction of the amounts recorded at the 2024 and 2025 peaks, even though almost all short-term holders are back in profit.
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Bitcoin Price Recovery Faces a Defined Test
The next major test is at $95,000–$97,000, where options positioning and the mean MVRV price converge. Positive gamma around the $95,000 strikes reached its highest reading on the report’s chart, while negative gamma built between spot and $92,000. Dealer hedging can accelerate price movements between spot and $92,000, then tend to dampen them near $95,000.
Demand indicators have improved, but they don’t settle the question of continuation. US spot ETFs recorded about $1.3 billion in inflows over the five days after the squeeze began, following two weeks of net outflows. Meanwhile, 24-hour spot volume more than doubled from its August trough, rising 121% since the rally began, although its seven-day average remained about 30% below its level a year earlier.
These conditions support the recovery narrative. A move below $84,000 would bring the $77,000 True Market Mean back into view, while a sustained break through $95,000–$97,000 would test the overhead resistance cluster. Broader October resistance and macro catalysts also shape the market’s risk-reward, as covered in Bitcoin’s October price outlook.
The defensible conclusion is narrower than the headline claim: this cycle avoided a negative aggregate NUPL reading and a daily close below Realized Price, while profit taking remained light and ETF inflows and spot volume recovered.
Holding above $84,000 keeps the path toward $96,700 open in Glassnode’s framework; a move below $84,000 and then $77,000 would put the recovery in doubt.