Bitcoin (BTC) is now undervalued versus the S&P 500.
That’s according to a metric that runs an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression of the relationship between bitcoin and S&P 500 over the last 200 days to estimate of fair value for the Bitcoin price based on the current S&P 500 price.
This methodology (an OLS regression of the Bitcoin and S&P 500 prices over the last 200 days) comes up with a fair value of 27,550 for BTC.
At its current price almost exactly $1,000 lower in the mid-$26,000s, bitcoin is currently undervalued versus this estimate of fair value by around 3.7%.
That’s the biggest undervaluation bitcoin has seen versus its 200-day OLS regression-derived fair value to the S&P 500 since mid-February.
![](https://v2.cimg.co/news/116363/312242/btc-fv-to-sp500.jpg)
Bitcoin and US stocks, particularly growth stocks, have historically had a close trading correlation, with analysts viewing both as speculative risk assets that are sensitive to shifts in interest rates.
US equity markets have been led higher in recent weeks by a surge in big tech stocks amid swelling optimism about the possibility that fast-evolving artificial intelligence (AI) technology will deliver a substantial boost to productivity and profits.
Thanks to the historic correlation between bitcoin and stocks, the more the latter rallies while the former stagnates, the more scope there is for a “catch-up” rally in bitcoin.
Bitcoin was last changing hands close to 15% lower versus yearly highs hit in the $31,000s in April, while the S&P 500 was on Thursday probing yearly highs just under 4,300.
![](https://v2.cimg.co/news/116363/312241/sp-500-and-btc.jpg)
Weakening Correlation Limits Prospect of Bitcoin Catch-up Rally
However, the argument for a bitcoin catch-up rally to the surging equity market isn’t quite as strong as it was a few months ago.
That’s because, while the correlation between the S&P 500 and bitcoin price is still positive, it has weakened substantially over the last 12 months.
This time last year, the 60-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 was above 0.6, as per data presented by CoinMetrics.io.
Meanwhile, as of the 6th of June, it was only around 0.14.
![](https://v2.cimg.co/news/116363/312237/btc-vs-sp500.jpg)
Much of the weakening in the two asset classes’ correlation happened in March, when a mini-bank crisis rocked sentiment in the equity sector, but injected a dose of safe-haven demand into bitcoin.
March’s price action was a sign that investors were finally starting to view bitcoin how its long-time proponents have always wanted it to be viewed – as a decentralized and secure alternative to the current fiat-based monetary system.
Indeed, while bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 has been weakening as of late as investors treat the asset more like a hard-money safe-haven like gold, bitcoin’s correlation to gold has been on the rise.
Bitcoin’s 60-day Pearson correlation to Paxful’s tokenized version of gold (PAXG), which tracks the spot gold price closely, was last around 0.22, having recent hit highs for the year above 0.3.
![](https://v2.cimg.co/news/116363/312238/btc-vs-paxg.jpg)
Bitcoin (BTC) is now undervalued versus the S&P 500.
That’s according to a metric that runs an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression of the relationship between bitcoin and S&P 500 over the last 200 days to estimate of fair value for the Bitcoin price based on the current S&P 500 price.
This methodology (an OLS regression of the Bitcoin and S&P 500 prices over the last 200 days) comes up with a fair value of 27,550 for BTC.
At its current price almost exactly $1,000 lower in the mid-$26,000s, bitcoin is currently undervalued versus this estimate of fair value by around 3.7%.
That’s the biggest undervaluation bitcoin has seen versus its 200-day OLS regression-derived fair value to the S&P 500 since mid-February.
![](https://v2.cimg.co/news/116363/312242/btc-fv-to-sp500.jpg)
Bitcoin and US stocks, particularly growth stocks, have historically had a close trading correlation, with analysts viewing both as speculative risk assets that are sensitive to shifts in interest rates.
US equity markets have been led higher in recent weeks by a surge in big tech stocks amid swelling optimism about the possibility that fast-evolving artificial intelligence (AI) technology will deliver a substantial boost to productivity and profits.
Thanks to the historic correlation between bitcoin and stocks, the more the latter rallies while the former stagnates, the more scope there is for a “catch-up” rally in bitcoin.
Bitcoin was last changing hands close to 15% lower versus yearly highs hit in the $31,000s in April, while the S&P 500 was on Thursday probing yearly highs just under 4,300.
![](https://v2.cimg.co/news/116363/312241/sp-500-and-btc.jpg)
Weakening Correlation Limits Prospect of Bitcoin Catch-up Rally
However, the argument for a bitcoin catch-up rally to the surging equity market isn’t quite as strong as it was a few months ago.
That’s because, while the correlation between the S&P 500 and bitcoin price is still positive, it has weakened substantially over the last 12 months.
This time last year, the 60-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 was above 0.6, as per data presented by CoinMetrics.io.
Meanwhile, as of the 6th of June, it was only around 0.14.
![](https://v2.cimg.co/news/116363/312237/btc-vs-sp500.jpg)
Much of the weakening in the two asset classes’ correlation happened in March, when a mini-bank crisis rocked sentiment in the equity sector, but injected a dose of safe-haven demand into bitcoin.
March’s price action was a sign that investors were finally starting to view bitcoin how its long-time proponents have always wanted it to be viewed – as a decentralized and secure alternative to the current fiat-based monetary system.
Indeed, while bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 has been weakening as of late as investors treat the asset more like a hard-money safe-haven like gold, bitcoin’s correlation to gold has been on the rise.
Bitcoin’s 60-day Pearson correlation to Paxful’s tokenized version of gold (PAXG), which tracks the spot gold price closely, was last around 0.22, having recent hit highs for the year above 0.3.
![](https://v2.cimg.co/news/116363/312238/btc-vs-paxg.jpg)