Polymarket’s Fed rates dashboard indicates a 62% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting, with a 39% probability of no change and each of the larger hike, a 25‑basis‑point cut, or a larger cut sitting below 1%. The dashboard presents the quarter‑point hike as the leading expectation, while a hold remains the second‑most likely outcome. Earlier data from Yahoo Finance showed Polymarket at 49% on September 8, Kalshi at 48%, and CME FedWatch near 56%, providing context but not a direct comparison. A promotional note invites users to make predictions on Kalshi with a $25 free bonus. CNBC reported on September 10 that CME Group’s FedWatch gauge placed the odds of a rate increase at 70% in morning trading, a figure higher than Polymarket’s current reading and reflecting different timing and market sources. The August wholesale‑price report and U.S. crude oil climbing above $100 a barrel contributed to the heightened expectations, with market pricing also suggesting a roughly 60% chance of another hike in December. Polymarket’s current focus remains on whether the September meeting delivers a 25‑basis‑point increase or leaves rates unchanged, as the cut outcomes are listed under 1% and therefore not among the leading scenarios. For readers tracking the decision, the key contrast is between the dashboard’s 62% hike probability and its 39% no‑change probability, alongside the separate readings from other market‑based gauges.
